Special Post-Election Analysis America Holds Its Breath

Source: Family Research Council

Date: Wednesday November 8, 2000

America Holds Its Breath In an election without precedent this century, "parity" may be the new watchword. The presidency hinges on the results from Florida, where one count gives Governor George W. Bush the victory by 1,784 votes. About 5,000 Florida absentee ballots remain uncounted. These ballots include military voters, and most believe that these ballots will end up increasing Bush's lead. However, there will be a full recount in Florida, beginning with an announcement at 9 a.m. Eastern time this morning. Because the process will take at least 12 hours, the earliest we could know the results is 9 p.m. Eastern time tonight. Aside from Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania were key states that made this a close race. Gore lost his home state of Tennessee and Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas, showing that the people most familiar with the Clinton-Gore administration rejected it. Republicans may end up with control of the presidency and both houses of Congress. Regarding our third branch of government, observers project that the next president may appoint 3 or 4 justices of the Supreme Court. Governor Bush has indicated on many occasions that if elected he will appoint justices to the Supreme Court who will strictly interpret the Constitution according to the intent of the Framers. Character was also a factor in the election. About one in four voters thought honesty or trustworthiness was the quality that mattered most in a president, and 80 percent of those people voted for Bush, while only 15 percent of them voted for Gore. Sadly, in one speech, Gore engaged in shameful race-baiting by implying that his opponent was soft on lynching, and 90 percent of black Americans voted for Gore. Meanwhile, Hispanic voters favored Gore, but over 30 percent chose Bush. Early reports were that over 80 percent of evangelical Christian voters chose Bush, and networks gave them credit for greater voter turnout. Jeff Greenfield of CNN said that Christian conservatives have had a lot of effect on this election. Gore talked a lot about families, but it turned out that not many of them ended up voting for him. Bush led among parents. Men favored Bush, as did married people. Single people favored Gore. So when pundits talk about a "gender gap," remember the "marriage gap." Senate Too Close To Call The American people seem to want the status quo. As of this writing, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, 50-48 with two races undecided-Michigan, and Washington, where Republican incumbents are currently defending their seats. Under a range of likely scenarios, even some complicated ones, Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Pro-life issues were only a factor in two of the races: Missouri and Virginia. While the current incumbent in Missouri is John Ashcroft, a conservative pro-life member, Missouri voters chose to replace him with the late Governor Mel Carnahan, a supporter of pro-choice. In Virginia, voters chose the opposite and replaced a pro-abortion candidate, Senator Chuck Robb, with a pro-life candidate, former Governor George Allen. Republicans Expected to Keep the House As of this writing, Republicans will maintain control of the House, with the necessary majority of 218. Here are a few of the "highlights," and "low lights," of last night's results: Republican incumbent Bob Aderholt (R-Ala.) held onto his seat. Republican Jim Rogan (R-Calif.), one of the Judiciary Committee members who served as an impeachment manager, was defeated by the liberal, self-funded Democrat Adam Schiff. Democrat Sam Gejdenson (D-Conn.) lost his seat to liberal Republican Bob Simmons. The open seat of Bill McCollum (R- Fla.), who unsuccessfully sought Connie Mack's Senate seat, was retained by Republican Ric Keller, a pro-life conservative. The open seat of term-limited Republican Charles Canady (R-Fla.), was retained by pro-life conservative Adam Putnam. Republican incumbent Clay Shaw (Fla.) held onto his seat. Republican Mark Kirk (Ill.) took the seat of his former boss, John Porter, one of the most pro-abortion Republicans in Congress. Pro-life Republican Tim Johnson (Ill.) maintained the Republican seat of outgoing Member Tom Ewing. Republican Mike Pence (Ind.) maintained the Republican seat of outgoing David McIntosh. Republican incumbent Anne Meagher Northup (Ky.) held onto her seat in fighting off a very pro-abortion woman, for whom President Clinton personally campaigned. Pro-life Republican incumbent Ernie Fletcher (Ky.) held onto his seat in a race against his predecessor, Scotty Baesler. Jim Talent's (R) open seat in Missouri was retained for Republicans by Todd Akin. Dennis Rehberg (Mt.) maintains his state's at-large seat for outgoing Republican Rick Hill. Republican incumbent Charlie Bass (N.H.) defended his seat; although Bass is not pro-life. Pro-life Republican Mike Ferguson (N.J.) replaces Bob Franks. Pro-life Felix Grucci took a New York Republican-leaning seat from Republican party-switcher Mike Forbes. Republican Pat Tiberi maintained the seat of outgoing Budget Chairman John Kasich in his conservative Ohio district. Pro-abortion Democrat Brad Carson took over the seat vacated by pro-life Republican Tom Coburn (now an FRC board member). Pro-life Republican Melissa Hart took a previously Democratic Pennsylvania seat. Republican Don Sherwood (Pa.) kept his seat. Pro-life Republican Ed Schrock took a previously Democratic-held Virginia seat, vacated by Owen Pickett. Ballot Measures: Marriage, Gambling, Drugs, and Taxes Two measures protecting traditional marriage, one in Nebraska and another in Nevada, won out. Voters in Montana and South Dakota approved bans on family-unfriendly inheritance taxes. Montanans voted 67 to 33 percent, and South Dakota voters repealed an inheritance tax by 79 to 21 percent. The overwhelming 70 to 30 percent defeat of both Michigan Proposal 1 and California Proposition 38 revealed that although parental choice options may resonate with the American people, they responded more favorably to the claims of teachers unions that it would drain funding for public schools. But supporters of education reform won a victory in Arizona, with voters abolishing mandatory bilingual education. A charter school initiative in Washington still remains too close to call. In Colorado, voters rejected a measure requiring a twenty- four hour waiting period before an abortion, 60 to 40 percent. Alaska voters turned down an egregious drug legalization initiative, 61 percent to 39 percent. California passed a proposition to require people who receive drug convictions to undergo drug treatment, rather than go to jail. Jail would be a possibility only upon a third conviction. On gambling initiatives, the results were mixed. Arkansas voters rejected casinos and a state lottery. Maine voters turned down video lottery, while South Dakota left it legal. South Carolina approved a state lottery, and Colorado voted to allow state participation in multi-state lotteries. State Races: Report of Voters Striking Back in Vermont Of the 13 Governor seats up for election, 7 were held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans. Democrats picked up one governorship, cutting the Republican national lead to 29 to 19 percent, with 2 Independents. After a backlash against legislators who voted for homosexual civil unions, it appears that Republicans have made major gains in both houses of Vermont's state legislature, taking control of the state house. The governor who signed civil unions into law, Howard Dean (D), won re-election by a narrow margin, unlike a larger win in the past. By a margin of 54 to 46 percent, the Associated Press declared Circuit Judge Roy Moore the winner in Alabama's race for chief justice of the state supreme court. In 1993, the ACLU sued Moore for hanging a copy of the Ten Commandments in his courtroom and opening court sessions with prayer. Moore said if he won in November, he would take his Ten Commandments plaque with him to the state Supreme Court. In other good news on the judicial front, three judges opposed to judicial activism were re-elected to their seats on the Michigan Supreme Court.

Family Research Council is located at 801 G Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 Phone: 202-393-2100 Fax: 202-393-2134 http://www.frc.org